Preventing crime: What research shows about gun violence

Speakers

Faith Dawson, editorial director, Tulane Communications and Marketing
Julia Fleckman, associate director, Tulane University Violence Prevention Institute, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine

Dawson
Hello, and welcome to On Good Authority, the podcast by Tulane University, where we bring you leading experts to talk about the issues of the day and ideas that shape the world. I'm your host, Faith Dawson. COVID-19 lockdowns were a time of huge uncertainty. And they coincided with a time of remarkable social change. As we emerge from the pandemic, life still feels unsettled in many ways, including that crime feels all the more common now, and like it hits closer to home, wherever that may be. But are we really experiencing a national violent crime wave, especially with homicide and other gun related crimes? Our guest today is Julia Fleckman, a social scientist with the School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine who studies the prevention of violence, especially gun violence, and who works with families to end the cycle of violence. She works with organizations like the Violence Prevention Institute and the Center for Youth Equity to research and evaluate programs that seek to reduce or prevent violence and to promote health equity. Her research is based in New Orleans but has implications nationwide. Julia, welcome to On Good Authority.

Fleckman
Thanks so much for having me.

Dawson
Can you tell us more about your research? What, in particular, do you study? And what does your research show?

Fleckman
Right, um, so I do quite a bit of work now in the realm of kind of understanding trends around gun-related crimes. And in particular, who is, you know, who is committing those gun-related crimes? And who is experiencing those gun-related crimes? In order to kind of counteract some of the narratives that we've seen that aren't really data driven. So really using more robust data sources and finding infrastructure for more robust data sources. I think that's a big part of this, too.

Dawson
So is the U.S. in fact experiencing a violent crime wave?

Fleckman
Well, I think it's, that's a complicated question. We definitely saw, we definitely saw a surge in violent crime nationwide from 2020 until a few months ago that seems to be subsiding pretty substantially and going back to pre-pandemic levels. Although there are a couple of cities like New Orleans where that's not subsiding. And in particular, I'm thinking about gun-related crime, specifically, nonfatal shootings and and homicides related to firearms.

Dawson
So even though it feels like we're, we're at an, it feels like we're at an all-time high, but it's, you feel like these statistics are, are flattening out somewhat?

Fleckman
It is. And I want to point out, too, that when you look at, you know, trends over the last few decades, the the rates for both, you know, overall violent crime and for homicide nationwide are substantially lower than they were in the ’90s. It feels like, and it certainly has been an increase, but I want to point out that it, it really hasn't necessarily been as high as it previous, previously has. And so, when we see these surges, it feels, I think, particularly scary, especially during a time when we feel insecure about a lot, particularly around social unrest and social isolation. And so emerging from a time like that, you know, I think it's scary for people.

Dawson
Even as cities like New Orleans always sort of lead these “most murders per capita” lists, do you feel like the crime statistics are consistent nationwide? So what happens in one city is kind of indicative of what's happening elsewhere?

Fleckman
We have to think about like major urban areas versus more rural areas, where, you know obviously, population-wise, we’re more concentrated in urban spaces. And that's where violent crime is concentrated primarily. But a lot of the United States is rural, or semi-rural, correct? And those statistics look quite different. You know, in terms of violent crime, we might not see the same things, but we do see potentially higher rates of things like suicide.

Dawson
I see.

Fleckman
So it really depends on kind of what you're talking about, I think, and how we might break that down. But we have to be careful about that as well. Because they're, you know, every place is different. For example, somewhere in the Northeast like New York City is incredibly different than New Orleans, which is concentrated in the Gulf South.

Dawson
The perception is that crime is a problem of big urban areas, even though that probably, that likely doesn't tell the whole story.

Fleckman
Right.

Dawson
And we mentioned that the 90s are notable for being a high point of violent crime. So why do you think that it feels like crime is more widespread right now? Like the pandemic has been mentioned.

Fleckman
One thing for me is, you know, the politics of violent crime, and that we're living in an incredibly polarized political time that we haven't really seen previously. We've seen that play out over the past, I think, five to seven years in particular. We've seen an increased polarization there. And when I think about not only violent crime, I think about gun safety measures and gun safety policy and the kind of proliferation of firearms in the United States. We have very few gun safety policies. In this past legislative cycle, there have been some really promising measures that have passed in a few states around gun safety, and I'm thinking about red flag laws. So you know, really preventing folks that have a history of domestic violence or severe mental health issues from obtaining a weapon. And when you don't have a real direction nationally, and there's such bitter, a bitter divide around that, I think it really demonstrates, you know, kind of where we're at. What was really promising is the bill that was passed in June. That's really the first gun safety legislation we've passed in a very long time. I think that's, that's one thing, is why it feels very intense, because the debate about it is very intense. And because guns feel like they're everywhere, because they are. You know, it's easier to gain access to a weapon, you know, in a place like, Louisiana, it's quite, it's pretty simple to go and buy a gun. I also, I also think, too, you know, part of that is just coming out of this real time of like, socially, isolation and stress, right? Where everybody is, you know, feeling the, the aftermath of that, and the effects of that. People are on edge.

Dawson
So conflict resolution plays a role in this, like people, some of these some of these, the homicides that happen specifically in New Orleans, but I guess this could be what other cities are grappling with as well. Like, we're talking about just arguments that boil over or, you know, like, grudges or something. And is that what you see, as part of your, the research that you have done?

Fleckman
Definitely, I think New Orleans is a really interesting place, because unlike some other major cities, you see a lot of just domestic disturbances or arguments that really accelerate, or boil over, and end up in a shooting. There's not necessarily the same type of like criminal organization or gang infrastructure that we see in many cities, although there are, you know, a little bit of that, or related to drugs. I think we have a real lack of mental health infrastructure, which relates to this as well. Although I want to make that very clear is that mental health is not a cause of gun violence. In fact, there's been really significant work done in this area to show that, you know, for for folks that have mental illness, they account for very, very few violent crimes. And if we were to target just those folks that had severe mental illness, we wouldn't substantially reduce violent crime. But if we went and did, you know, conflict resolution training with everyone that's 35-plus in the city, I think that would do a lot less than focusing on social and economic stability for families with young children, and for, and really focusing in on how we support and provide services and programming for youth.

Dawson
Right. And while we're on the topic of young people, like we don't want to, I certainly don't want to look at this in terms of, you know, generations that just get thrown away or whatever. But your research shows that young people are not responsible for the majority of violent crimes. But they're still being exposed to this violence. And in many cases, they're the primary victims of gun violence. How does that affect a population?

Fleckman
That's correct. In fact, we've seen youth, what's called “youth perpetration of violent crime” substantially decreased over the last few decades. There's been a little bit of an uptick here, but we're seeing that across age groups, and in fact, we're seeing perpetration increase really more substantially in older adults, above 35. You know, I think that that is an incredibly important thing to kind of tease out, given the narrative that young people are becoming increasingly violent, that they're responsible for this, that we really need to target and think about criminal justice measures and interventions to to work with young folks. But when they're not necessarily the ones responsible for the crime, or that narrative is somewhat of a false narrative, and it's really been perpetrated over time. And then we also see those young people not necessarily receiving the support they need over their life courses, right? They've been born into, you know, I think about New Orleans in particular, where we see really massive disparities in terms of income, educational access, access to like other services and programming. And who does that affect the most? It's young people. And then how we provide kind of social support and programming and skills and mentorship to those young folks that really deserve more than they're getting. And deserve to kind of thrive and succeed and have the opportunities that people with the, you know, highest income levels get. But let's just say that, you know, there's some real data limitations, in terms of what we look at, when we look at violent crime. And nationally, that's really been through the FBI, but we've changed systems in a major way, in terms of how data are collected. So trying to kind of think about how we triage and collect different data sources beyond what's been traditionally looked at, to have a fuller picture of the story and how we might examine those trends and where we might want to focus our resources. For example, you know, I mentioned youth and young people, you know, knowing that they experience violent crime at a much higher rate. And then the other piece of what I do is really thinking about prevention, or intervention, as I mentioned, and how we shape those efforts. So what do kind of some of these data trends show us, in terms of how and where we concentrate resources for prevention?

Dawson
So there's no one mechanism that that works across the board, like so what works in, works or doesn't work in New Orleans, may or may not work in St. Louis or in Gary, Indiana, or someplace like that, right?

Fleckman
Yeah, I think there is room for, you know, for testing and seeing that major strategies work, and, you know, for small adaptations to make it work in other places. So I don't want to say that it doesn't work at all. In fact, we have pretty robust, you know, evidence that some of these things could work in different settings. It's just a matter of really understanding what the core elements are that are needed, and how we are culturally culturally responsive in a local context, right. So it just requires a little bit of of adaptation.

Dawson
How has the public sentiment evolved, if at all, about gun ownership or gun behavior? Like, do you see any change there?

Fleckman
So I haven't seen a ton of movement there. And I think that's really tricky, too, because that is a real urban versus rural, North versus South, you know, or Midwest, conversation. Where there's different parts of the country that are incredibly tied to to guns and growing up with guns in the house, you know, going hunting, that people are thinking about, thinking about gun safety and gun storage differently. I think that's a huge piece of it, too, is like we might not be able to completely move the needle in terms of gun ownership, but safe storage, and and learning how to properly handle a weapon. It wouldn't, it doesn't just help with accidental shootings, of which there are many, right. In fact, you know, guns, if you account for all the different types of gun-related deaths, you know, they're the No. 1 killer for children and adolescents in this country now. So I think there's, you know, a method to think about gun safety for both accidental shootings. It's been shown to be effective, really in in reducing risk for suicide.

Dawson
Do you feel like the storage, safe storage and safe usage of a firearm, that that's a behavior that we can move, that we can move the needle on? You know, if you're talking about having a weapon for safety, and I guess some people would think that you would have have to have it at the ready, like it's got to be in your car, or it's got to be a place where you feel vulnerable. It's not going to be in a like squirreled away in a gun closet, where you're going to have to fumble to get there, right? We are going to have to be able to get gun owners to think about that more readily.

Fleckman
Definitely. And I think that's a huge, that's, that is the most important thing when we, when you consider messaging around gun safety. Because you're right, I have conversations all the time with folks who are like, who essentially say, “I need to be able to have my gun right there.” Right, and those few seconds matter. But what is oftentimes missing in that conversation is is a few different things. A, they're really not aware of how unsafe storage like that cannot only be a major risk factor for them hurting themselves and other people that they don't want to hurt. There are all sorts of gun storage and lockbox devices that are very easy to use and portable.

Dawson
Is there an example of a city that has has made progress that you feel is worth emulating?

Fleckman
What I would tell you is there's probably no one city that's doing it all right. In cities like Oakland, and in New York City and a few other places, around universal basic income, and providing families with, or you know different groups, some people have targeted young people with, you know, like a certain amount of funds every month, you know, for for a few years. And really looking at how that brings people out of not only poverty, but really, I think also increases the likelihood that they're going to succeed.

Dawson
I mean, does anyone ask the people, the young, you mentioned the community groups. Do we ask the young people what it is that they need? Are their voices represented as well?

Fleckman
A few, you know, there's been a lot of talk about that in the city, and several groups that have really promoted that, is young people want safe places to interact, to be kids, outside of, that’s at school, and then that's outside of school, too. Activities that they can participate in, ways that they can become involved in their communities. You know, it's it's not, what they're asking for isn't really rocket science. It's pretty simple. We've done such a poor job of really asking them and integrating that perspective that adults tend to overlook that. So I'm hoping, though, that we really continue to integrate that perspective.

Dawson
Is there anything else that you'd like to add to the discussion about preventing violence?

Fleckman
One really important piece of this is there are a lot of questions that we don't have answers to. And I think it will take us some time to get there. But it's such an important question in terms of how we really think about and address this, and I hope that more people will consider exactly what we've talked about here today. It is just all of these factors that may be playing a role in how we might really think about preventing violent crime.

Dawson
Julia, thank you for being our guest today.

Fleckman
All right, thank y’all so much.

Dawson
And thank you for listening to the latest edition of On Good Authority. For more information on future episodes, please visit our website at tulane.edu/on-good-authority. If you like our show, please subscribe to us via your favorite podcast app.